This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures are declining lower by 4.00 points to 1383.25 per contract. The catalyst for the early decline in the futures market is a weaker European stock market and a poor weekly jobless claims report in the United States. Traders that want to cut through the news and the noise should simply follow the U.S. Dollar Index (DX-M2) very closely. When the U.S. Dollar Index rallies or trades higher the major stock indexes in the U.S. and Europe will usually deflate and trade lower. The opposite is true when the U.S. Dollar Index declines, the major stock markets will inflate and rally higher. In essence, every trade is a trade on the U.S. Dollar Index.
Traders should watch for stocks in the industrial and base metal sectors to be weak if the U.S. Dollar Index is strong. Leading stocks such as Teck Resources Limited (NYSE:TCK), BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) (NYSE:BHP), Vale (ADR) (NYSE:VALE), and Rio Tinto plc (ADR) (NYSE:RIO) are just a few stocks that will come under selling pressure when the U.S. Dollar is stronger.
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