In overnight trading we saw SP500 futures get pushed above the May 1st high triggering some stops to be run. I expect the market makers may do the same thing today during regular trading hours to be sure to shake out the rest of the shorts before allowing prices to pullback for a few days or reverse completely.
The interesting chart from yesterday was the VIX (Volatility Index). We saw stocks trading sideways/lower yet fear and volatility declined sharply by more than 7%. This is not typical price action and to me it means the masses are getting overly comfortable with rising prices and not expecting a pullback. The saying is “when the VIX is low its time to go” and the market does seem to be setting up for a pullback.
Pre-Market Analysis Points:
- Dollar is looking more bullish today along with Bond prices. Both look ready to start another push higher and that means lower stock and commodity prices.
- Crude oil pulled back yesterday as expected and is trading once again at short term resistance and will likely trade sideways/lower today.
- Natural gas is starting to look bullish now that it has formed a 3 wave correction into a support zone. Unfortunately there are no good ETFs for trading Nat Gas as they lose substantial value over time even if nat gas trades sideways or slightly in your favor. I do feel it could explode higher and that will be my reason for taking a small position in UNG likely in the coming days.
- Precious metals pulled back yesterday after testing key resistance for the umpteenth time. They remain in a down trend currently.
- SP500 popped in overnight trading to break the May 1st high during futures trading. I feel stocks will hold up in the morning today to shake out the shorts. After that I feel a pullback in the second half of the week is highly likely and we may get short.
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