The OTS trading strategy focuses on selling premium in situations where implied volatility is higher than its historical average, bases entries on probabilities of success around 1 standard deviation or greater than 68% probability of success, and where the passage of time serves as a profit engine. Since the beginning of April, the OTS Premium [...]
June 18th – 13% gains in 48 hours in TNA Naked Puts
Where is the Larger Bubble: the S&P 500 Index or U.S. Treasuries?
Today we have a plethora of companies reporting earnings and are moving through the 1st Quarter earnings season at a rapid pace. Thus far, earnings have been far from exciting and have made the previous 2013 forward earnings estimates laughable. The only way we get to the proposed valuations is through multiple expansion which is [...]
Monitoring Implied Volatility is Critical for Option Traders
One of the hallmarks of an options trader is the ability to reach into his trading tool bag and pull out different trading vehicles in order to accommodate the current market situation. With few exceptions, a major component of any strategy our trader would select includes selling option premium. Premium sales usually are selected in [...]
AAPL Trade Considerations for Option Expiration Week
“The girls all get prettier at closing time.” ~ Mickey Gilley ~ Option trading is not “just the same as stocks.” It turns on the three primal forces ruling an options trader’s world- time to expiration, price of the underlying, and implied volatility. As expiration approaches, the forces of time exert their strongest influence of [...]
Using Volatility to Trade IBM Using Options
One of the hallmarks of an option based trading approach is the ability to accommodate various market conditions by varying the specific construction of your option trade in order to maximize the probability of success. In order to form a logical basis for trade selection, it is best to think in terms of each of [...]
The Examination Of AAPL Earnings Trade Idea – Part II
Last week we discussed some of the fundamental concepts necessary to understand both the behavior of options in the approach to earnings release and their reaction to the actual release itself. Our example was AAPL which indeed reported disappointing earnings on Tuesday, July 24. We reviewed the fact that because of the risk associated with [...]
Using Options to Trade AAPL Earnings
Trading stock around the times of earnings releases is a notoriously difficult operation because it requires accurate prediction of the direction of price movement. Wrong predictions can expose the trader to substantial loss if large unexpected moves occur against his position. Because of the risk associated with these events, many traders use options to define [...]




