What Now For The US Markets?

The markets have been in a rough and tumble recent period here with a 3.5% decline last week along with a further drop to the 1982 lows so far on Monday.  What is likely ahead?

Dave Banister- Chief Strategist-

The SP 500 probably just completed the initial wave down of an ABC Correction from the 2079 highs.  We are counting this correction as a “Wave 2″ of a full 5 wave sequence up from 1820 lows in October.  Essentially, Oil is the reason being used by the media for the correction but that is just the convenient headline excuse of the day.  Instead, what we will likely see is a Santa rally “B” wave ahead and then another leg down in January to complete this larger ABC move.

Elliott Wave theory is very hard to use to accurately forecast movements ahead of time, but we try our best to project, analyze, and then adjust as needed. Our best estimate is the 38% fibonacci retracement of the 259 point rally completed at 1982 today.  A “B Wave” rally up from here is normal and a C wave down to the 1920 area would complete a 61% retracement of that Wave 1 259 point rally.

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Following the completion of a standard ABC Correction we should have a Wave 3 Bullish wave in early 2015 that will challenge the highs of 2079 and likely overtake them.  We do not like to get too far ahead of ourselves with the forecasts but we expect the excuse for that rally will be low energy prices and a strong consumer going into 2015.  Some of the obvious rally names for January will be energy stocks, but will need to be carefully selected.  Gold needs to get past 1241 on a closing basis before we get too bullish on those names, but we have them on watch as well.

If you’d like to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory and be ahead of the curve on SP 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Gold and other markets join us with a 33% discount at






Feb 26th- Gold Due for Pullback Wave 2?

A pullback in Gold today to 1320’s from the 1348 high. We had been looking at about 1350 plus minus as an initial objective off the 1181 pivot lows for the truncated 5th wave of the bear cycle. We can see support at $1300 for spot Gold right now in the charts in terms of keeping it simple.
Now lets keep in mind we just rallied from 1181 to 1348, or about 167 points which is quite a rally. Indeed, February is often a short term cycle low for Gold and has been in years past.
A normal corrective wave 2 would be anywhere from 38% on the low end to 61% on the higher end as likely.
Using some basic math, 38% of 167 points is $64 an ounce, giving a possible pivot target of $1284 plus minus a few.
So bottom line? We remain bullish long term, short term we may have a minor wave 2 pullback to work off some of this 167 dollar rally in Gold, and 1284 is a 38% fib pivot and 1300 is traditional support.
May just need to take a rest here for a bit… otherwise we maintain for now our $1550 target for 2014.
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SP 500 at 13 day cycle turn ?

The SP 500 has rallied from 1267 to 1848 major 3 highs from Major 2 lows.

We had 1822-29 as MOST likely pivot highs for Major wave 3.

Now, we note that it’s common during this Major wave 3 pattern to have 13 trading day cycles of correction or consolidation, followed often by up legs.

We just completed a 13 trading day cycle in the SP 500 in a range bound area of trade.

Therefore, we are about to likely see a big move up or down within 1-2 trading days if we are right. Given that the market is extended and earnings season is just around the corner, we should see a sharp move here next week.

Since we are extended past the idea 1829 projection, we are on guard for market reversal and correction of 7-10%.

In the interim, over at the Active Trading Partners service we continue to out perform the stock market by a wide margin since April 1st

2013 by riding the trend and entering and exiting positions using our modeling techiques. At last count, 87% vs 18% for the SP 500 since April 2013 on an adjusted portfolio basis.

This also means we are keeping our eyes open for headwinds. If

we can get past 1848 near term, then another extension in this Major 3 is upon us. 1823 is now KEY support on the downside.

Your two numbers to watch are 1849 and 1823…. the break of either will help us with our updated projections intermediately

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Hello, David,

Thanks for the update. I just wanted to mention that I am VERY impressed with your TMTF service and the accuracy of your pivot levels. I noticed some of your predictions in the past and that peaked my interest. When you made the S&P 1095 call, that prompted me to join, and I have made proportionally a lot more money since I joined your service than I ever did before. It is like the missing piece in my trading puzzle.

Thanks for the great service!
Mark J. Mazurik


This note to you is out of deep respect for your analysis (especially given the abject failures of other Elliott Wave guys in the field) on an absolute basis.
You deserve all the accolades showered upon you. Thanks for all you do.
Greg Zwillinger



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during your checkout process.

David A. Banister
Chief Investment Strategist

DISCLOSURE: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Trading is risky and money can be lost on any single position at anytime. Subscribers should always consult with a Professional Advisor and determine their risk profile and risk tolerance. ATP is a subscription based service and subject to the terms of agreement.

How we parlayed Market views for a 6.4% 3 day gain- TZA

Over at our TMTF ( service, we look at pivot points for the SP 500 and Gold typically both on a short, intermediate, and long term basis.  This foundation is often used to parlay those views or forecasts into 3x ETF trades, such as TZA, NUGT, DUST, TNA etc. Often at our ATP stock and ETF trading strategies we use that knowledge to then profit with 3X trades.


In this case, we look at a recent trade based off our forecast that the SP 500 was only going to bounce up in a B wave bounce, and then head back down.  Assuming our pattern analysis was then correct, we entered TZA from 26.10 down to 25.40 ranges as the bounce completed, timing it just right.


OUR ETF Trading service is a component of and you can subscribe just for 3x ETF and other ETF trades if you wish as a standalone option.   In this case we E-mailed and Texted out the alert for  TZA to scale in long, and then just 3 trading days later we exited at the open of the market early this week, feeling it was oversold and TZA had peaked out.


We exited at the open for 6.4% average gains, and in the next 24 plus hours TZA dropped all the way back down to the low 26′s from our 27.40 exit.  Once again, we used our Elliott Wave based analysis coupled with a few other indicators to take advantage of market volatility.


Consider joining us for ETF only trades or both Stock and ETF trades at

830 tza sale

Our Updated Track Record through Aug 6th 2013

We began offering a combination of boht ETF and Stock swing trades on April 1st of this year.


We have been logging in our wins and losses on an adjusted basis since that time.


Assuming an average of 3 open positions (Full positions Stock and ETF) we have the following results: (We use $20,000 per trade or a $60,000 portfolio for the sake of numbers, but the amount is not important otherwise)


37.7% portfolio gain vs 8.6% for the SP 500 Index during this period.
Return 37.7% return-  Profits and Losses per trade are listed below


$ profit/loss on each Trade (Stock or ETF) below. Symbols Omitted, and in Chronological order from most recent to the April 1st beginning.


This is based on Closed Positions, we still have a few open positions currently that are positive but not included:



$22,640.00 Total-  37.7% weighted return vs 8.6% for SP 500 Index

Past performance is not an indication of future results. Join us to receive SMS Text and Email alerts in Real Time for buying and selling of positions. Some positions are held for days,  others for multiple weeks depending on price action.


Why Great Stocks Drop Hard and Reverse

Institutional sell programs and bots cause disruptions:

David Banister- Chief Strategist-


One thing that will always over rule charts and technical analysis is fundamentals in the long run.  To be sure, I love technical analysis but I always combine my work there with fundamental research. I rarely if ever buy a stock just because the chart looks nice, that is almost always a recipe for disaster.  


With that said, how many times have you seen a good company with strong fundamentals and a seemingly great looking chart break down over 1-2 weeks and take everyone out of the trade?  Then for sure, the stock reverses right back up all the way back to where the decline began?  To make matters worse, this happens without any real news or any bad news as it were.  What is it that causes these crazy down the mountain and up the mountain moves anyways?


Insitutional Sell Programs— sometimes referred to as “Bots” or “Algo” program trading


How does it work?


In an apparently strong fundamental growth stock with no apparent issues, an institution will have a pre-defined price at which point instructions are triggered to liquidate the entire position almost at any price once that price point is hit. They protect themselves ahead of time with Puts, which give them profits if the targeted stock drops hard while they are selling out of the position, thereby locking in their targeted sell price.


Lets take several examples below with 3 month charts to show you exactly how they look on paper. If you can learn to spot these moves you will be more likely to add to positions on big declines rather than selling out at a loss as all the stops trigger along with the margin calls:


The stocks we will chart out here are AMBA, DATA, DECK, and GILD.  All strong companies with good growth profiles:


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715 data


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So what have we learned?  In a Bull cycle buy the dips on the stronger fundamental stories when the Algo and Institutional programs start kicking in.  Don’t panic out of your position at a loss, study the fundamentals and trust your instinct.

Join us at as we take advantage of exactly these types of swings all the time. Learn more at

Jul 9th- New highs on the way as we suggested in late June

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Wave 5 up has been in our forecast ever since we started correcting down below 1600, because wave 5 must follow wave 4, its in the Elliott Wave Bible.

Wave 5 can be difficult to forecast, but we have said at a minimum it will test the all time highs at 1687-1689 pivots, which would be a shallow wave 5 rally from 1560.

Today, we updated to our paying subscribers that we have 1768-1771 as the upper end of this rally and where the market likely would top out and begin a larger correction pattern, what we would call a “Major wave 4″.

For now though, as we have been posting publicly on Stocktwits and Twitter, we see this wave up continuing higher to 1687-89 for starters, and our subscribers will be updated daily as usual.

Below is our ROADMAP for the SP 500 for the intermediate term:

Join us for free reports here and there and or 33% off our daily report subscription (Covers SP 500 and GOLD) at


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The Inflation Trades Are Your Friend

Ignore the pundits and pay attention to the action and what you see around you. Last time I walked down the cereal aisle I thought maybe I needed glasses, but no… the boxes keep shrinking. That’s inflation as seen in food being priced in via smaller servings at the same or higher prices. Gold has likely put in a massive cyclical bottom in the 1180′s with 1156 the likely support now for any further pullback and analysts continue to downgrade the better Gold miners right near the cycle bottom.

Copper has also bottomed in my opinion near $3 and will continue higher than most think as its cycle works back to the north. Coal stocks are looking like massive bottoms if you take a look at WLT, ANR, BTU and others. Freeport Mc-Moran is probably in the process of a bottom near $27 per share as well for another Oil-Gold sample.

Chips stocks remain strong as well and solar pricing is improving for the solar producers… all signs of stronger economies soon to emerge and inflation coming back into play.

Fortune will favor the Bold

Join us either at for real time trades or for Gold and SP 500 forecasts updated daily

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78 anr article